If true, great. But why the disclaimer?

If true, great. But why the disclaimer? Nate Silver the owner of the leftist 538, says that his gut tells him that Trump wins, but don't trust your gut. What?

“My gut says” former President Donald Trump will win the election, Nate Silver wrote Wednesday, with a warning not to trust “anyone’s gut” instinct.

Silver, a statistician, writer, and poker player, says the election remains a “50/50” coin flip, a characterization that many political experts argue is true with just 13 days until Election Day.

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1848800642627764664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1848800642627764664%7Ctwgr%5E778e0f43c93da76c9ad55ff19ab0e049d7d8a877%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Ft%2Fassets%2Fhtml%2Ftweet-4.html1848800642627764664