According To Nate Silver Trump Favored in Electoral College.

According To Nate Silver Trump Favored in Electoral College. For the folks who don't know Silver, he's a Liberal forecaster.

I know many don't follow things like that, but I found my fellow Substack colleague had some interesting points.

Harris is ahead by 3.8 points in our national poll tracker — up from 2.3 points the day before the Democratic Convention began — which does suggest some sort of convention bounce. However, she’s fallen to a 47.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College versus 52.4 percent for Donald Trump. (The numbers don’t add to 100 because of the possibility of an Electoral College deadlock.)  Some of this is because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after the DNC. It assumes Harris’s polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump’s numbers were inflated after the RNC. While there’s a solid basis for this empirically, you could argue we’re under unusual circumstances because of her late entry into the race. 

Harris has had weak numbers in Pennsylvania recently

The 2024 Pennsylvania presidential general election polls in our model and how influential they are Page 1 of 7  

Note: LV indicates likely voters, RV indicates registered voters, V indicates voters, and A indicates U.S. adults. Updated August 29, 2024Get the data

But for now, we now show a 17 percent chance that Harris wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, a big concern for her campaign all along. If she won the popular vote nationally by between 1 and 2 points, for instance, the model estimates that she’d still be a 70/30 underdog in the Electoral College:

It’s possible that RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump is having more effect in Pennsylvania and the other Rust Belt states than elsewhere, which have older, whiter and more disaffected electorates. And as I said, it’s also possible that all of this is noise and/or that the model is overdoing the convention bounce adjustment. But while Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, I can’t help but wonder what her numbers would look like with Josh Shapiro instead.